Energy security is often framed as a competition between independence and dominance, but the reality is far more complex. Modern energy systems are inherently interdependent. 

 While the world races to secure semiconductor supply chains and critical minerals, one material has quietly remained foundational and dangerously overlooked: steel. 

2024 began with green steel and carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAM) as the significant political issue for the global steel and iron ore sector. By early 2025, the Biden administration’s decision to block the proposed acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel and the election victory of Donald Trump signalled a new set of industry risks ahead around protectionism, industrial policy, and government intervention. 

The outcome of the US elections will not only shape US domestic policy but will also have far-reaching implications for international relationships, particularly for us in the UK. 

In this article, Robert Johnston and I explore the future of coal phase-outs in the Energy Transition Outlook Edition of The Assay, focused on the failure of COP 29 to advance progress on the global coal phaseout.